What if renewed energy subsidies balloon European fiscal deficits and alarm bond markets?
Renewed energy-price subsidies and consumer-bill support balloon European fiscal deficits, raising sovereign-supply concerns even as they cushion the inflation hit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed energy-price subsidies and consumer-bill support balloon European fiscal deficits, raising sovereign-supply concerns even as they cushion the inflation hit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist +1.06–+2.94% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.47–+0.21% · other way +0.46% (n=12) |
| 3 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist +0.99–+3.1% · other way +0.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.06–+0.16% · other way +15.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.68–+0.05% · other way +0.95% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.25–+0.01% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.15–+0.61% · other way +9.81% (n=10) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.85–+0.12% · other way +1.56% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.33–+0.53% · other way +0.51% (n=12) |
| 10 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.86–+4.01% · other way -10.18% (n=8) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.33–+0.33% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 12 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.62–+0.15% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 13 | Robinhood HOODon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.56–+0.41% · other way +20.17% (n=9) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–+0.07% · other way -0.78% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -4.8% | 100% | 3 | 0.55 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +13.0% · 5d +5.6% | 75% | 12 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.3% | 70% | 40 | 0.33 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.0% | 67% | 33 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.8% | 67% | 18 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.0% | 59% | 37 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 53% | 34 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 37 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 51% | 37 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |