What if Energy Fuels scales US rare-earth oxides from monazite?
Energy Fuels' White Mesa mill ramps separated rare-earth oxide output from monazite sands, adding a domestic light- and heavy-REE stream that diversifies US supply.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Energy Fuels' White Mesa mill ramps separated rare-earth oxide output from monazite sands, adding a domestic light- and heavy-REE stream that diversifies US supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.06–+0.0% · other way +0.68% (n=7) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.32–+0.64% · other way -1.42% (n=7) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.5–-0.16% · other way +1.59% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.07–+0.49% · other way -6.28% (n=7) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.41–+0.64% · other way -3.37% (n=7) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.88–+8.81% · other way -10.12% (n=7) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.13–+0.36% · other way -1.5% (n=8) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.77–+2.21% · other way -3.09% (n=7) |
| 10 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.11–+0.19% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.06% · other way +3.73% (n=8) |
| 12 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.73–+1.95% · other way +0.39% (n=7) |
| 13 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.76–+0.32% · other way -0.19% (n=8) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.17–+4.04% · other way -5.9% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +13.8% · 5d +3.4% | 74% | 16 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 66% | 27 | 0.30 | · |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 37 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 27 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +8bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.4% | 57% | 29 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.5% | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.5% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.1% | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -8.2% | 55% | 18 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.2% | 54% | 27 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |