What if a fusion or battery breakthrough guts long-run oil demand?
A fusion/solid-state-battery breakthrough craters the long-run fossil-demand curve: crude and fuels fall and, crucially, lower energy-driven inflation expectations pull real yields and the Fed path down, bid-ding duration. There's no clean modern analogue; the 2014 shale-driven oil crash is the nearest demand-side rhyme. Forward angle: the bond-market channel is the durable trade — a credible terminal-demand repricing flattens the long end structurally even if spot crude moves are gradual.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A fusion / solid-state-battery breakthrough craters the long-run fossil-demand outlook. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.