What if a drilling breakthrough makes geothermal scalable nationwide?
Commercially scalable enhanced geothermal adds firm clean baseload — a growth-positive, multi-year supply story; the mapped NVDA/AI-capex and growth-surprise legs capture the optimism but the timeline (3-10y) makes any tape move pure narrative. Closest rhyme is the shale-drilling breakthrough that re-rated US energy supply over years. Skeptical: Fervo-style EGS is promising but capital-intensive and unproven at GW scale, so this is a thematic, not a tradable, catalyst; don't chase chips on a drilling headline.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A drilling breakthrough makes enhanced geothermal commercially scalable, opening firm clean baseload nationwide. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.53–+2.09% · other way -1.77% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.09–+0.91% · other way +2.86% (n=11) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.13–+0.34% · other way +4.32% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.08–+0.74% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.83–+0.57% · other way +2.31% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.49–+1.63% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 7 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.07–+0.26% · other way +2.12% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.22–+0.95% · other way -14.26% (n=8) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.61–+1.79% · other way -10.37% (n=9) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.53–+18.95% · other way +4.04% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.77–+0.69% · other way -1.75% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.78–+7.53% · other way -2.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +1bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on SOL/AMD/ASML: the negatives are AI-chip and metals-event windows off the energy channel — scalable geothermal baseload is a risk-on supply story history's unrelated semiconductor/commodity drivers can't measure.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.0% | 67% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +16.9% · 5d +0.6% | 63% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -6.3% | 60% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +2bp | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 49% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.8% | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Enhanced geothermal progressing (Fervo) but nationwide commercial scalability over 3-10yr stays uncertain. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.