What if Enrichment price spike makes underfeeding the swing supply?
Soaring SWU prices flip enrichers to underfeeding, consuming more uranium per unit of product and tightening the natural-uranium market further into deficit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Soaring SWU prices flip enrichers to underfeeding, consuming more uranium per unit of product and tightening the natural-uranium market further into deficit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.49–+0.23% · other way -9.23% (n=5) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.15–+0.5% · other way -11.14% (n=5) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.53–+0.38% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.03–+0.37% · other way -9.7% (n=5) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.16–+0.76% · other way -9.62% (n=5) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–+0.14% · other way -1.41% (n=7) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–-0.01% · other way -1.22% (n=5) |
| 8 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.93–+4.74% · other way +70.35% (n=5) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.65–+0.2% · other way -10.84% (n=5) |
| 10 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.45–+0.49% · other way -1.51% (n=12) |
| 11 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -1.41–+0.49% · other way -5.94% (n=5) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.19–+0.16% · other way +2.39% (n=2) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.95–+2.65% · other way +33.73% (n=5) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+0.22% · other way +0.01% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 66% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 39 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 66% | 39 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.20 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.6% | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.4% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +4.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +-0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |