What if the EU retaliates against US auto tariffs with duties on American vehicles, agriculture and tech?
Brussels retaliates against US auto tariffs with duties on US vehicles, agriculture and tech, escalating a transatlantic trade conflict the ECB 2025 round treats as a core fragmentation channel.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Brussels retaliates against US auto tariffs with duties on US vehicles, agriculture and tech, escalating a transatlantic trade conflict the ECB 2025 round treats as a core fragmentation channel. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.