What if cascading US-China-EU tariff blocs cut global trade volumes by 20%?
Cascading US–China-EU tariff blocs cut global trade volumes ~20% over two years, the headline magnitude of the EBA/ECB 2025 trade-fragmentation adverse scenario, dragging global growth materially below trend.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Cascading US–China-EU tariff blocs cut global trade volumes ~20% over two years, the headline magnitude of the EBA/ECB 2025 trade-fragmentation adverse scenario, dragging global growth materially below trend. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.3% hist +1.62–+6.49% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -5.5% hist -3.29–-1.97% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.46–-0.67% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.8% hist -2.08–-0.74% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -1.95–-0.78% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -2.86–-0.56% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.7–+3.05% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.99–+0.63% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.82–-0.44% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.63–+1.72% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -3.08–-0.2% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -3.24–-0.09% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -2.97–-0.08% · other way -1.68% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.9% · 5d +6.5% | 88% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 82% | 21 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -8.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -11.7% ↺ fades | 75% | 7 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.4% | 67% | 21 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 22 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 21 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 22 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.3% | 64% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.7% | 62% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NIFTY NIFTY | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.7% | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |