What if the EU bans new gene-edited crops?
An EU gene-edit ban fragments seed/biotech markets — short ag-biotech (Corteva, Bayer Crop, KWS) and trade EU-US regulatory divergence; it is not a China-tariff event, so the Alibaba/yuan/TSMC cascade is simply the wrong vocabulary. Rhymes with the 2018 ECJ ruling that swept CRISPR crops under GMO law, freezing EU agtech investment. Transmission is transatlantic seed trade and EU farm competitiveness; mapping to trade_tension hijacks an unrelated tech/semis chain.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The EU court bans new gene-edited crops, fragmenting global seed markets and stranding billions in ag-biotech investment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.66–-0.18% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–+0.18% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.47–+1.97% · other way +4.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.95–+1.02% · other way +3.35% (n=12) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.71–+0.68% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.44–-0.05% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.76–+0.77% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.98–+1.44% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.82–+0.85% · other way +5.45% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.56–+0.5% · other way +1.84% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.53–+0.93% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.58–+0.0% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.72–+0.8% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.51–+0.1% · other way -5.61% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT MSTR: its +5.9% history is BTC-swamped and regime-contaminated — a crypto proxy's move reflects Bitcoin, not an EU gene-edited-crop seed-market ban.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -3.4% | 81% | 39 | 0.61 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.7% | 67% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.9% | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.3% | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 58% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +4bp | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.4% | 53% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
EU just moved toward easing NGT rules; court-driven ban reversing that is unlikely/structural. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.