What if the EU bans new gene-edited crops?
An EU gene-edit ban fragments seed/biotech markets — short ag-biotech (Corteva, Bayer Crop, KWS) and trade EU-US regulatory divergence; it is not a China-tariff event, so the Alibaba/yuan/TSMC cascade is simply the wrong vocabulary. Rhymes with the 2018 ECJ ruling that swept CRISPR crops under GMO law, freezing EU agtech investment. Transmission is transatlantic seed trade and EU farm competitiveness; mapping to trade_tension hijacks an unrelated tech/semis chain.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The EU court bans new gene-edited crops, fragmenting global seed markets and stranding billions in ag-biotech investment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.