What if EV adoption erodes structural gasoline demand, narrows cracks?
Accelerating EV penetration in China, Europe and California structurally lowers gasoline demand, narrowing the RBOB crack and pushing the highest-cost merchant refiners toward conversion or closure.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Accelerating EV penetration in China, Europe and California structurally lowers gasoline demand, narrowing the RBOB crack and pushing the highest-cost merchant refiners toward conversion or closure. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Gasoline ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.