What if a solar superstorm burns out power grids for months?
A super-Carrington event blacking out grids for months is a real-economy heart attack, not a 'tight financial conditions' crypto-liquidity story: bid gold and long-dated bonds (Fed forced to ease into a supply collapse), short industrials and copper as demand evaporates. The closest analogue is the 1859 Carrington event scaled to a wired civilization — no clean market precedent, so size it as a fat-tail hedge, not a base case. The current crypto-beta cascade badly understates the hit; transmission is global and simultaneous, so diversification fails.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A solar event beyond Carrington induces continent-scale transformer burnout, blacking out grids for months across hemispheres. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Global growth ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.