What if Falling rates re-rate utility bond proxies alongside load growth?
A decline in long-term real yields restores utility dividend appeal just as load-growth lifts rate base, driving a double tailwind that re-rates the regulated-utility cohort.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A decline in long-term real yields restores utility dividend appeal just as load-growth lifts rate base, driving a double tailwind that re-rates the regulated-utility cohort. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.34–+0.62% · other way +0.85% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.55–+11.04% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.11–+0.68% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -5.68–+10.5% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -7.7–+10.19% · other way -5.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.29–+2.61% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.18–+3.22% · other way +2.51% (n=8) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -9.03–+10.83% · other way -5.6% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.56–+0.68% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.17–+0.8% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 12 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.27–+4.86% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.1–+0.22% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.1–+1.46% · other way +9.05% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 18 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +17.8% · 5d +2.8% | 87% | 7 | 0.65 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +28.3% · 5d +7.0% | 73% | 7 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -11.9% · 5d -5.7% | 75% | 4 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +10.3% · 5d -8.5% ↺ fades | 73% | 10 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 70% | 17 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 15 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.9% | 62% | 17 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 16 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.19 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 14 | 0.18 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.6% · 5d +1.1% | 60% | 16 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +6bp | 59% | 18 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.9% | 58% | 11 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |