What if Fed-dovish pivot revives the EM real-rate carry advantage?
A dovish Fed turn lowers US real yields and the dollar, widening the EM real-rate gap and reigniting carry inflows that lift the currency complex.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A dovish Fed turn lowers US real yields and the dollar, widening the EM real-rate gap and reigniting carry inflows that lift the currency complex. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -3.3–+1.78% · other way +0.13% (n=9) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.4% hist -6.18–+2.01% · other way -2.58% (n=9) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.3% hist -5.55–+8.81% · other way +13.5% (n=5) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.71–+0.58% · other way -0.61% (n=9) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.12–+1.1% · other way -0.36% (n=10) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.64–+1.42% · other way -6.64% (n=7) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.78–+2.1% · other way -3.7% (n=6) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.2–+1.53% · other way -0.64% (n=9) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.43–-0.17% · other way +0.91% (n=12) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.13–+0.34% · other way -0.51% (n=9) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.21–+0.59% · other way -1.63% (n=9) |
| 13 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.37–+0.56% · other way +0.85% (n=9) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.92–+1.01% · other way +0.68% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -0.8% | 76% | 8 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -6.1% | 75% | 4 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -0.6% | 66% | 23 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 23 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.8% | 68% | 38 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.2% | 67% | 35 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 66% | 23 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 23 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -4.6% | 62% | 26 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.5% | 61% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 25 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -2bp | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |