What if Fed framework review drops average-inflation-targeting for a clean 2%?
The Fed scraps flexible average-inflation-targeting and returns to a symmetric point target, signalling it will not let overshoots ride; a modest hawkish repricing firms the dollar and real yields.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The Fed scraps flexible average-inflation-targeting and returns to a symmetric point target, signalling it will not let overshoots ride; a modest hawkish repricing firms the dollar and real yields. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.39–+0.03% · other way +7.46% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.69–-0.17% · other way +1.13% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.71–-0.13% · other way +2.04% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.75–-0.08% · other way +5.49% (n=8) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.19–+1.52% · other way -1.1% (n=9) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.56–+1.74% · other way +6.73% (n=8) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.54–+1.02% · other way -1.48% (n=11) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.93–+12.89% · other way +7.3% (n=11) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.02–+0.45% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.75–+0.14% · other way +2.37% (n=12) |
| 12 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.06–+0.6% · other way +1.41% (n=11) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -3.81–+15.68% · other way +5.7% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.98–+3.41% · other way +4.16% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 65% | 35 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +4bp | 66% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -6.2% | 68% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.0% | 65% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -6.9% | 63% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -4.0% | 65% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.2% | 60% | 35 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +7bp | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -4.2% | 61% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -5.8% | 60% | 31 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.3% | 60% | 37 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |