What if Fed's preferred PCE re-accelerates, killing the cut narrative?
A hot core-PCE surprise forces the Fed to drop easing guidance, repricing the path hawkishly; real yields and the dollar climb while rate-sensitive risk de-rates on the inflation scare.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A hot core-PCE surprise forces the Fed to drop easing guidance, repricing the path hawkishly; real yields and the dollar climb while rate-sensitive risk de-rates on the inflation scare. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -8.92–+2.69% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.09–-0.43% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.04–-0.5% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.26–+2.87% · other way +9.81% (n=7) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.93–+0.95% · other way -0.51% (n=11) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +9bp hist -1.7–+24.73% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -7.89–+4.22% · other way +0.35% (n=8) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.39–+2.59% · other way +10.12% (n=7) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -4.43–+21.45% · other way +15.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.08–+1.09% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.43–+0.35% · other way +0.56% (n=9) |
| 13 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.34–+0.61% · other way +3.34% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.3% | 85% | 12 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 77% | 12 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -3.1% | 82% | 16 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.6% | 81% | 12 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -6.5% | 81% | 12 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +18bp · 5d +4bp | 70% | 20 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.4% | 69% | 12 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -8.3% | 68% | 10 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 69% | 12 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -7.8% | 65% | 12 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 12 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.8% | 65% | 12 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 12 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 12 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |