What if America's first small modular reactor reaches the grid?
The first commercial US SMR reaching grid power validates the tech and re-rates the sector, read here as AI-capex/power-supply optimism lifting NVDA and semis. The relevant template is the 2024 SMR equity euphoria (Oklo, NuScale) on hyperscaler power demand. Skeptical note: one demonstration unit does not equal economic, mass-deployable supply — NuScale's cancelled UAMPS project (2023) showed cost overruns kill orders, so fade an outsized, durable re-rate on a single first-of-a-kind milestone.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The first commercial US small modular reactor reaches grid power, validating the technology and re-rating the sector. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.16–+0.99% · other way -3.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.42–+0.52% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.72–+1.07% · other way +0.87% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.4–+0.4% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.7–+0.57% · other way -0.96% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.57–+0.47% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.02–+0.99% · other way +0.5% (n=12) |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.32–+0.81% · other way -2.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.61–+1.32% · other way -1.82% (n=12) |
| 10 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.52–+0.9% · other way -4.71% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on ASML/AMD: the small negatives come from Nvidia/TSMC-specific chip windows, an AI-capex-driven sample — the first US SMR is a power-supply catalyst those semiconductor-event analogues don't capture; channel mismatch.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -3.3% | 69% | 39 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.1% | 64% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.6% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.7% | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +0bp | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.8% | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.9% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.5% | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
First US SMR grid-power near, but 6-18mo timing tight given build slippage. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.