What if a French president invokes emergency powers amid deadlock?
A French emergency-powers/constitution crisis is an OAT-Bund-spread and CAC trade: governance breakdown widens French spreads to peripheral levels and hits CAC banks (BNP, SocGen, Credit Agricole). Direct analogue is the June-2024 snap-election shock when OAT-Bund hit ~85bp and French banks slid ~10%. France is the euro area's second economy; the forward risk is that a French — not Italian — spread blowout is the one the ECB's TPI is least politically able to backstop.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. President invokes emergency powers amid deadlock, opposition cries coup, OATs and CAC drop on governance breakdown. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.