What if Fusion or geothermal breakthrough reshapes utility power-supply outlook?
A credible advanced-firm-clean breakthrough at pilot scale reshapes the very-long-run electricity-supply curve, re-rating winners while pressuring incumbent fossil-generation terminal value.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A credible advanced-firm-clean breakthrough at pilot scale reshapes the very-long-run electricity-supply curve, re-rating winners while pressuring incumbent fossil-generation terminal value. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.87–-0.44% · other way -2.4% (n=10) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.89–+0.35% · other way -3.95% (n=10) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.68–-0.08% · other way -1.71% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.26–+0.6% · other way +0.61% (n=10) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.61–+1.41% · other way -5.45% (n=10) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.8–+1.67% · other way +0.19% (n=7) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.09–+13.81% · other way +8.2% (n=10) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.99–+3.05% · other way +0.18% (n=9) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.2–+0.47% · other way +0.75% (n=10) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.09–+0.56% · other way +3.34% (n=10) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.85–+8.73% · other way +1.39% (n=10) |
| 13 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.04–+0.42% · other way +5.62% (n=10) |
| 14 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.72–+0.58% · other way -1.04% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.5% | 68% | 19 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 71% | 14 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.6% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.2% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 63% | 16 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -3.2% | 62% | 17 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 17 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -7.7% | 65% | 14 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -4.3% | 61% | 19 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 19 | 0.13 | · |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 56% | 18 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.11 | · |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 56% | 18 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |