What if Fusion pilot delivers net power: energy-abundance optimism?
A demonstration fusion plant achieves sustained net-positive output, igniting an energy-abundance narrative that lifts clean-energy and growth expectations and depresses long-run oil demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A demonstration fusion plant achieves sustained net-positive output, igniting an energy-abundance narrative that lifts clean-energy and growth expectations and depresses long-run oil demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.03–-0.32% · other way -2.1% (n=7) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.94–+2.24% · other way -3.2% (n=7) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.71–-0.34% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.97–+0.84% · other way -2.08% (n=7) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -2.27–+1.47% · other way -4.91% (n=7) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.04–+1.31% · other way +0.0% (n=7) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -5.59–+13.93% · other way +11.52% (n=7) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.04–+4.27% · other way -2.46% (n=7) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.14–+1.13% · other way -0.1% (n=7) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.13–+10.56% · other way +0.72% (n=7) |
| 12 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.7–+4.36% · other way +7.88% (n=7) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.74–+1.0% · other way +7.76% (n=7) |
| 14 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.44–+0.34% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 30 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 71% | 17 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -4.7% | 67% | 29 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.3% | 64% | 30 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +9.3% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 19 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +2bp | 65% | 30 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -8.2% | 66% | 17 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 29 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 24 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +-0.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.5% | 57% | 27 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 27 | 0.10 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.5% | 55% | 20 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.9% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 27 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 27 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |