What if GE Vernova turbine backlog locks in multi-year gas-power bid?
A sold-out gas-turbine order book through 2028 signals a durable wave of new US gas-fired capacity for datacenters and reshoring, underpinning structural Henry Hub demand and XLU/XLE earnings.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A sold-out gas-turbine order book through 2028 signals a durable wave of new US gas-fired capacity for datacenters and reshoring, underpinning structural Henry Hub demand and XLU/XLE earnings. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.44–+0.84% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.21–+1.17% · other way -1.01% (n=11) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.13–+1.93% · other way +1.22% (n=12) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.05–+2.21% · other way +6.38% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.17–+0.93% · other way -1.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.48–+1.15% · other way -5.87% (n=11) |
| 7 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.21–+4.17% · other way +2.67% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.76–+13.75% · other way +0.93% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.89–+2.16% · other way -5.83% (n=11) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.0–+0.33% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.72–+0.74% · other way +2.19% (n=12) |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.45–+1.41% · other way -2.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.04–+0.63% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.2% | 67% | 23 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 69% | 23 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.1% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 22 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 15 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +1.0% | 62% | 22 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 20 | 0.19 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -3.7% | 57% | 22 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 22 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.4% | 59% | 23 | 0.13 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.7% | 57% | 23 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.7% | 57% | 22 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 22 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 24 | 0.11 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 17 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |