What if global gas re-fragments into rival pipeline and LNG blocs and raises price volatility?
A re-fragmentation of global gas into rival pipeline-and-LNG blocs raises European and Asian gas-price volatility and fertilizer-input risk structurally, an IEA/NGFS energy-fragmentation scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A re-fragmentation of global gas into rival pipeline-and-LNG blocs raises European and Asian gas-price volatility and fertilizer-input risk structurally, an IEA/NGFS energy-fragmentation scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.0% hist +0.31–+6.29% · other way -9.37% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.27–-0.44% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.77–-0.29% · other way +0.13% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.74–-0.3% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.62–-0.27% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.12–+0.48% · other way +0.73% (n=11) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.61–+3.05% · other way +14.41% (n=11) |
| 8 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.56–+1.28% · other way +7.41% (n=11) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.59–-0.01% · other way -0.02% (n=11) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.15–+7.32% · other way -2.03% (n=9) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.55–+0.29% · other way +0.97% (n=11) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.73–+0.24% · other way -0.69% (n=11) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.71–+0.62% · other way +0.97% (n=10) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.39–-0.09% · other way +6.41% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.7% · 5d +1.9% | 70% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.5% | 66% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 20 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.2% | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.1% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 25 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.9% | 57% | 34 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |