What if Global gas oversupply caps geopolitical risk premia on TTF?
A persistent LNG glut means even fresh supply scares barely move TTF, as ample spare capacity and full storage neutralize geopolitical premia and structurally dampen European gas volatility.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A persistent LNG glut means even fresh supply scares barely move TTF, as ample spare capacity and full storage neutralize geopolitical premia and structurally dampen European gas volatility. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.86–-0.19% · other way -6.06% (n=10) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.4–+0.38% · other way -1.01% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.86–+1.45% · other way +14.47% (n=7) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.89–+0.35% · other way -0.49% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.09–+0.23% · other way +9.7% (n=7) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.17–+2.36% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.17–+15.28% · other way -2.21% (n=10) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.09–+0.24% · other way -1.03% (n=10) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.04–+0.35% · other way -0.15% (n=10) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.49–+0.15% · other way +1.37% (n=9) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.96–+2.11% · other way +16.5% (n=7) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -2.59–+12.79% · other way +57.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -3.99–+15.1% · other way +56.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.7% | 76% | 40 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +4bp | 72% | 40 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 38 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 68% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +5bp | 67% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +13.5% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 63% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -7.5% | 62% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 48% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.3% | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 41% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | · |