What if Graphite anode supply curb forces battery-grade rationing?
A coordinated curb on battery-grade graphite tightens the anode market, forcing cell makers to ration spherical graphite and pay up for non-China qualified material.
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The butterfly cascade
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A coordinated curb on battery-grade graphite tightens the anode market, forcing cell makers to ration spherical graphite and pay up for non-China qualified material. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.