What if the capital cost of decarbonising steelmaking raises global steel prices and strands old capacity?
The capital cost of decarbonising steelmaking (hydrogen DRI, electric arc) raises global steel prices and strands carbon-intensive capacity, an NGFS transition-cost scenario for heavy industry.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The capital cost of decarbonising steelmaking (hydrogen DRI, electric arc) raises global steel prices and strands carbon-intensive capacity, an NGFS transition-cost scenario for heavy industry. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.4–-0.16% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–+0.07% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 3 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.66–+0.61% · other way +2.93% (n=12) |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.22–+0.33% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 5 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.79–+0.71% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.64–+0.01% · other way +6.78% (n=12) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.37–+0.89% · other way -1.7% (n=9) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.88–+1.19% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.9–+1.29% · other way -1.23% (n=10) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.75–+0.61% · other way +6.1% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.09–+2.18% · other way +10.41% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.34–+0.47% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.06–+0.81% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.7–+0.71% · other way -2.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.6% | 72% | 27 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 24 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.3% | 63% | 24 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.8% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.5% | 59% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 18 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 24 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 24 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 24 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 26 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +5.6% | 53% | 25 | 0.05 | · |