What if greenflation forces central banks to keep policy tight against transition-driven inflation?
A greenflation shock erupts as carbon levies and green-input scarcity feed through to consumer prices, forcing central banks to keep policy tight against transition-driven inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A greenflation shock erupts as carbon levies and green-input scarcity feed through to consumer prices, forcing central banks to keep policy tight against transition-driven inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.8–-0.47% · other way -0.83% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.41–+0.04% · other way +1.09% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.93–-0.22% · other way -1.18% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.66–+0.78% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -3.84–+21.38% · other way +3.8% (n=12) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -2.98–+17.39% · other way +3.5% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.14–+2.61% · other way +17.82% (n=7) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.23–+1.26% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.24–+0.33% · other way -1.45% (n=8) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +5bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.7–+2.29% · other way -3.92% (n=7) |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.41–+1.54% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 14 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.93–+3.12% · other way -1.45% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -2.0% | 100% | 2 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -9.0% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 75% | 12 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 75% | 12 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +2.6% | 67% | 12 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +4bp | 66% | 17 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -8.7% | 67% | 12 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.7% | 67% | 12 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -5.2% | 67% | 12 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 8 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +3bp | 59% | 19 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 19 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.0% | 62% | 8 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |