What if Grid-connection costs and delays push AI compute offshore?
Persistent interconnection delays and high grid-connection costs push some AI datacenter investment to power-rich jurisdictions abroad, denting US load-growth upside.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Persistent interconnection delays and high grid-connection costs push some AI datacenter investment to power-rich jurisdictions abroad, denting US load-growth upside. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.78–+0.08% · other way +6.32% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.79–+0.86% · other way -5.52% (n=10) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.65–+0.07% · other way +3.37% (n=12) |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.75–+1.08% · other way +0.79% (n=10) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.47–+0.62% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.42–+0.65% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.68–+0.95% · other way +19.13% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.87–+2.55% · other way +6.05% (n=10) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.2–+0.16% · other way +0.94% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.39–+0.69% · other way +12.08% (n=10) |
| 12 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.99–+0.33% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.22–+0.24% · other way +0.79% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.1% | 75% | 27 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -7.7% | 67% | 23 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.9% · 5d +1.8% | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -4.0% | 58% | 24 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.7% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -3.5% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |