What if Guinea bans bauxite exports after a coup?
A Guinea coup government halting bauxite exports threatens China's alumina refineries with feedstock starvation — the direct move is alumina and aluminium prices higher (Guinea is ~a quarter of seaborne bauxite, the dominant China supplier); the semis/Alibaba-tariff cascade is mis-mapped. Rhymes with the 2021 Guinea coup that briefly spiked aluminium and alumina, and recurrent Guinea export-permit threats. Forward angle: China's heavy import dependence on Guinea is a single-point vulnerability — a sustained ban forces alumina-refinery cuts and an aluminium squeeze; the trade is alumina/aluminium and Chinese smelter margins, not tech.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A coup government halts Guinea bauxite exports, threatening China's alumina refineries with feedstock starvation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +4.3% hist -0.2–+10.6% · other way -6.78% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.02–-0.49% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.6–+0.37% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.92–-0.11% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -5.4–+1.66% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.56–+0.11% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.06–+0.49% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.3–+5.63% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.61–+4.66% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.35–-0.11% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.23–+0.39% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.37–+3.04% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.4–+1.54% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 14 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.33–+0.64% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on SPX/SMH/MU: their +1-3% 'gains' are pure 2025 tariff-rebound regime, where stocks V-recovered post-shock — that bounce isn't the bauxite-starvation channel.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +7.4% · 5d +4.9% | 75% | 24 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.4% | 70% | 29 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.0% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 71% | 22 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.0% | 67% | 22 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -2.0% | 66% | 23 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.7% | 67% | 29 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.5% | 65% | 22 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 65% | 22 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -7.2% | 65% | 15 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.8% · 5d +0.7% | 62% | 10 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 21 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 29 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 21 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Guinea junta has threatened bauxite flows; a full export halt is possible but self-damaging to revenue. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.