What if Gulf gas-to-power build-out frees more crude for export?
A wave of Gulf gas, solar and nuclear capacity backs out crude burned domestically for power, lifting net oil exports and the bloc's external surpluses and credit quality.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A wave of Gulf gas, solar and nuclear capacity backs out crude burned domestically for power, lifting net oil exports and the bloc's external surpluses and credit quality. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.87–-0.91% · other way -1.22% (n=8) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.4% hist -5.52–+3.34% · other way -2.17% (n=8) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.51–-0.48% · other way -1.4% (n=8) |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.24–+1.31% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.88–+5.67% · other way +5.35% (n=8) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.42–+1.25% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.72–+6.12% · other way +0.69% (n=8) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.35–+1.12% · other way +0.19% (n=7) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.94–+6.94% · other way +9.51% (n=8) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.04–+0.4% · other way -0.47% (n=9) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.89–+2.4% · other way -0.26% (n=8) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.67–+5.25% · other way +1.46% (n=8) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -8.16–+11.41% · other way +4.73% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 7 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d -6.7% | 88% | 7 | 0.60 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +11.9% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 75% | 5 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +5.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 71% | 6 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -0.7% | 75% | 7 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 75% | 5 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.25 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d -3bp ↺ fades | 69% | 7 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 7 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 64% | 6 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +5.2% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 6 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.6% | 56% | 7 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 56% | 7 | 0.10 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 7 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 43% | 6 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |