What if Heat-tolerant wheat cultivars lift yields and ease grain prices?
Wide adoption of drought- and heat-tolerant wheat varieties structurally raises yields in marginal belts, softening the global price floor over the decade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Wide adoption of drought- and heat-tolerant wheat varieties structurally raises yields in marginal belts, softening the global price floor over the decade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Wheat ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.14–+2.85% · other way -2.21% (n=6) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.3–-0.12% · other way +6.43% (n=8) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.1–+0.32% · other way +0.97% (n=8) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.33–+16.93% · other way -3.24% (n=8) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.86–+2.42% · other way -1.78% (n=8) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +-0.0–+0.4% · other way +1.24% (n=8) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.72–+4.37% · other way -0.23% (n=8) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.77–+0.18% · other way +0.01% (n=8) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.12–+0.66% · other way -2.82% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.13–+10.36% · other way +10.09% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.7% | 65% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +2bp | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +15.7% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -5.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.0% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 39% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.1% · 5d +1.1% | 48% | 28 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |