What if a record heatwave drives excess mortality, crop losses and grid-stress property claims simultaneously?
A record heatwave drives excess mortality (life claims), crop loss and grid-stress property claims simultaneously across a developed market, a compound climate event stacking life and P&C losses.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A record heatwave drives excess mortality (life claims), crop loss and grid-stress property claims simultaneously across a developed market, a compound climate event stacking life and P&C losses. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Pandemic shock ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -8.59–+1.2% · other way -1.2% (n=12) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.17–+0.64% · other way -0.41% (n=12) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.2–+0.47% · other way +3.24% (n=12) |
| 4 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.69–+0.36% · other way -2.57% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.13–+0.32% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.48–+0.42% · other way +22.39% (n=12) |
| 7 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.37–+1.03% · other way +4.89% (n=12) |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.53–+0.41% · other way -2.45% (n=12) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–-0.02% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 10 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.07–+0.19% · other way -1.98% (n=12) |
| 11 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.34–+0.47% · other way +2.68% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.42–+0.5% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.49–+11.12% · other way -7.36% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.24–+0.63% · other way +8.75% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.9% | 73% | 36 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -4.3% | 72% | 36 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -3.5% | 65% | 22 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.2% | 61% | 26 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d -2bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 61% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 37 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.6% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +10.4% · 5d +6.9% | 55% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d -4bp | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.3% | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -7.2% | 56% | 15 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 14 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |