What if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil risk unwinds?
Premium unwind: Hormuz reopening collapses the oil war-premium — Brent -5%, jet/diesel/gasoline and the energy sector lower, VIX -8, Nasdaq bid on the disinflation tailwind. This is the symmetric reversal of the Rising Lion spike (2025), where crude round-tripped fast once transit normalized. Forward angle: because the premium builds and bleeds quickly, the asymmetry favors fading spikes rather than chasing the relief; the durable read-through is lower breakevens and a friendlier real-rate path for long-duration tech, not a sustained energy short.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The Strait of Hormuz fully reopens after a US-Iran de-escalation; the oil risk premium unwinds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.