What if Iran ballistic salvo overwhelms Israeli defenses?
A massed missile-and-drone barrage saturates Israeli air defenses and hits infrastructure, forcing a wider war footing; ILS sells off, defense and oil-risk premia jump.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A massed missile-and-drone barrage saturates Israeli air defenses and hits infrastructure, forcing a wider war footing; ILS sells off, defense and oil-risk premia jump. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.