What if an over-committed green-hydrogen build-out fails to find demand at viable prices?
An over-committed green-hydrogen build-out fails to find demand at viable prices, stranding electrolyser, pipeline and offtake investments across the hydrogen value chain.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An over-committed green-hydrogen build-out fails to find demand at viable prices, stranding electrolyser, pipeline and offtake investments across the hydrogen value chain. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–-0.04% · other way +8.02% (n=12) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.34–+3.31% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.18–+0.43% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.9–+1.36% · other way +1.7% (n=11) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–-0.04% · other way -7.02% (n=12) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–-0.07% · other way -0.98% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.43–+0.64% · other way +0.39% (n=12) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.03–+0.78% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.43–+0.06% · other way -1.71% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.73–+0.58% · other way +20.35% (n=12) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.44–+0.58% · other way -1.62% (n=12) |
| 12 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.6–+0.13% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.18–+2.05% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.33–+0.03% · other way -2.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.2% | 70% | 20 | 0.35 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.3% | 69% | 39 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +2.7% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.1% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.9% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.4% | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.5% | 54% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 52% | 31 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 39 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |