What if Hyperscaler PPA renegotiation risk undercuts utility growth bid?
Tech buyers renegotiate or walk from power agreements as AI-capacity plans shift, undercutting the contracted-load assumptions behind utility re-ratings and pressuring exposed names.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tech buyers renegotiate or walk from power agreements as AI-capacity plans shift, undercutting the contracted-load assumptions behind utility re-ratings and pressuring exposed names. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.38–-0.1% · other way -5.52% (n=10) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.81–+1.19% · other way +6.83% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.25–-0.08% · other way +0.76% (n=11) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.17–+2.39% · other way +18.0% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -7.46–+2.55% · other way +6.05% (n=10) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.2–-0.12% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.81–+1.05% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 9 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.61–+0.76% · other way +2.41% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–-0.05% · other way +0.67% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.45–+5.55% · other way -7.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.39–+0.61% · other way +10.62% (n=11) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–-0.08% · other way +0.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.73–+0.45% · other way -1.44% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.7% | 74% | 22 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 31 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 33 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 60% | 37 | 0.17 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -5.2% | 59% | 30 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -3.7% | 60% | 20 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 30 | 0.13 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 30 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 30 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.4% | 56% | 30 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 28 | 0.10 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 30 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.9% | 54% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 32 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |