What if fragmentation and reshoring permanently lift the structural inflation floor?
Fragmentation, reshoring and tariff costs combine to lift the structural inflation floor, forcing central banks to keep policy tighter for longer in the IMF's fragmentation scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Fragmentation, reshoring and tariff costs combine to lift the structural inflation floor, forcing central banks to keep policy tighter for longer in the IMF's fragmentation scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +4.7% hist +1.03–+4.22% · other way -5.77% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.7% hist -2.14–-1.24% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.81–-0.88% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.68–-0.49% · other way +0.6% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -4.81–+0.52% · other way +5.65% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.88–+0.2% · other way +3.08% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.53–-0.24% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.92–+0.19% · other way +3.87% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.31–+0.78% · other way -4.28% (n=8) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.87–-0.26% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.86–-0.01% · other way +3.08% (n=11) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.82–+0.58% · other way +0.83% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.54–+2.73% · other way +9.81% (n=7) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.5–+0.35% · other way +3.34% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.3% · 5d +0.8% | 73% | 13 | 0.44 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 70% | 31 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.5% | 71% | 27 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 31 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.3% | 68% | 37 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.3% · 5d +3.6% | 67% | 13 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -7.3% | 67% | 22 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.8% | 66% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -5.1% | 67% | 31 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -6.3% | 64% | 27 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.9% | 64% | 27 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 30 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 32 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.3% | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |