What if FERC freezes the US power interconnection queue?
FERC suspending the US interconnection queue strands hundreds of GW of solar/storage, starving AI datacenters of grid access — the trade is a hit to AI-capex deliverability that drags NVDA and the semi complex. Rhymes with the 2025 DeepSeek/AI-capex air-pockets, where any threat to the buildout repriced the whole chain. Forward angle: power interconnection, not chips, is now the gating constraint on compute, so a queue freeze is a more durable bearish catalyst than a single earnings miss.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. FERC suspends the multi-terawatt US interconnection queue, stranding hundreds of billions in stalled solar and storage projects. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.