What if FERC freezes the US power interconnection queue?
FERC suspending the US interconnection queue strands hundreds of GW of solar/storage, starving AI datacenters of grid access — the trade is a hit to AI-capex deliverability that drags NVDA and the semi complex. Rhymes with the 2025 DeepSeek/AI-capex air-pockets, where any threat to the buildout repriced the whole chain. Forward angle: power interconnection, not chips, is now the gating constraint on compute, so a queue freeze is a more durable bearish catalyst than a single earnings miss.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. FERC suspends the multi-terawatt US interconnection queue, stranding hundreds of billions in stalled solar and storage projects. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.73–+0.05% · other way +4.26% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.72–+0.1% · other way +6.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.39–+0.37% · other way -0.9% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.41–-0.17% · other way +1.68% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.28–-0.09% · other way -2.83% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–+0.34% · other way +2.02% (n=12) |
| 7 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.46–+0.61% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.84–+1.19% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 9 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.24–+1.17% · other way -2.61% (n=12) |
| 10 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.98–+1.36% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.7% | 64% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.8% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.5% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 39 | 0.04 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.7% | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
FERC fully suspending interconnection queue extreme; reform more likely than freeze. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.