What if Inventory draws flip the curve back into backwardation?
Sharper-than-expected stock draws pull the front of the crude curve back into backwardation, rewarding long positions and signaling tightness; prompt spreads firm even as headline prices stay rangebound.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sharper-than-expected stock draws pull the front of the crude curve back into backwardation, rewarding long positions and signaling tightness; prompt spreads firm even as headline prices stay rangebound. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.7% hist +0.29–+1.7% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.2% hist -0.99–+1.38% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.38–+1.39% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.32–+5.35% · other way +6.55% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.23–+1.98% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.06–+1.53% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.47–+2.14% · other way +5.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.2–+3.98% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -3.41–+16.95% · other way +1.5% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.81–+0.11% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -3.3–+18.15% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.46–-0.02% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.96–+0.24% · other way +11.14% (n=11) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–+0.0% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 21 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -7.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 55% | 35 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.8% | 55% | 30 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 34 | 0.08 | · |