What if Iran's inflation tops 80 percent as deficit monetisation accelerates?
Tehran monetizing its deficit past 80% inflation drives gold-coin hoarding domestically and adds a modest geopolitical-vol bid globally — but the asset read is mostly local. Rhymes with Iran's 2018-19 sanctions-snapback hyperinflation and the 1980 gold blow-off the analogues cite. China's discounted crude purchases are the only FX lifeline; the forward angle is that domestic gold/FX hoarding, not external markets, absorbs the shock, so global spillover stays limited absent a kinetic escalation.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tehran monetizes its deficit as waiver relief fades, pushing annual inflation above 80% and triggering fresh gold-coin hoarding. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.