What if failed sanctions talks collapse Iran's rial past 1.6 million?
Collapsed US-Iran waiver talks restranding oil receipts and gapping the rial past 1.6m is a geopolitical tail: Brent prices a supply/conflict premium higher and equity vol spikes, while the rial itself is uninvestable. Rhymes with the June-2025 Operation Rising Lion strikes and the 2024 missile exchanges that spiked Brent and VIX. China is Iran's residual crude buyer at a discount; the novel angle is that lost waiver barrels tighten the physical market just as spare capacity thins.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A collapse of the US-Iran sanctions-waiver talks restrands oil receipts, collapsing the rial past 1,600,000/USD on the open market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.