What if Iran mines the Strait after a failed deal?
Collapsed nuclear talks tip Iran into closing Hormuz with naval mines, the trigger path from diplomacy to a full ~10mbd off-market oil shock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Collapsed nuclear talks tip Iran into closing Hormuz with naval mines, the trigger path from diplomacy to a full ~10mbd off-market oil shock. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +11.3% hist +3.09–+7.59% · other way -3.16% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -5.9% hist -2.91–-1.74% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +5.4% hist +1.33–+3.32% · other way -3.86% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.4% hist -0.81–+2.43% · other way -3.53% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.3% hist -2.77–-1.34% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.5% hist -3.01–+0.59% · other way +30.65% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.0% hist -2.77–-0.69% · other way +1.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.99–+0.21% · other way -2.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.1% hist +0.98–+1.74% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.2% hist -3.41–+0.18% · other way +8.33% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.54–-0.39% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -2.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -4.31–+0.59% · other way +4.74% (n=12) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.63–+1.19% · other way +8.76% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.8% · 5d +2.7% | 69% | 18 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 35 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +6bp | 63% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +6.1% · 5d +0.5% | 64% | 18 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.3% | 64% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.4% | 63% | 35 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -6.1% | 68% | 8 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 35 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.0% | 64% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |