What if a second uprising topples Iran's regime?
Collapse of the Iranian regime into contested succession halting oil exports is the biggest barrel shock in this set — Brent +7.8, distillates bid, equity sold on the supply-plus-risk chain. Analogue: the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which removed ~5mbd and more than doubled oil, triggering a global recession. Transmission runs straight to Asian importers via Hormuz; the forward angle is that a chaotic succession (vs. clean transition) risks closing the Strait outright, the path that turns a price spike into a 1979-style oil-supply crisis.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A second uprising fractures the IRGC, security forces defect, and the Islamic Republic collapses into a contested succession, halting Iranian oil exports. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.