What if JCPOA-style deal revived with snapback guardrails?
A renewed comprehensive nuclear accord with automatic snapback caps Iran's program and lifts oil sanctions in stages, draining the breakout tail and the oil-risk premium.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A renewed comprehensive nuclear accord with automatic snapback caps Iran's program and lifts oil sanctions in stages, draining the breakout tail and the oil-risk premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -6.6% hist -9.61–-0.17% · other way +14.47% (n=8) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.8% hist +0.43–+2.55% · other way -0.6% (n=8) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.71–-0.11% · other way -1.04% (n=8) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.29–+2.14% · other way -2.63% (n=8) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist +0.21–+2.54% · other way -0.52% (n=8) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.5% hist -0.16–+2.88% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -6.88–+13.68% · other way +5.54% (n=8) |
| 8 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.15–-0.02% · other way -0.05% (n=8) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% hist -2.75–+5.02% · other way -1.75% (n=4) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.18–+1.42% · other way +0.36% (n=8) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -7.86–+10.29% · other way -0.79% (n=7) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.41–+4.72% · other way -0.65% (n=4) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -5.47–+12.64% · other way +1.9% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 20 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.5% · 5d +2.1% | 83% | 14 | 0.63 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -2.5% | 75% | 20 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +29.4% · 5d +9.1% | 75% | 6 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.9% | 75% | 20 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +1.3% | 74% | 19 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.6% | 70% | 19 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -5.4% | 74% | 19 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.1% · 5d +1.4% | 71% | 17 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.2% | 67% | 20 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.6% | 68% | 15 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 65% | 19 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +11.7% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 15 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -11.3% · 5d -7.0% | 67% | 4 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 9 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |