What if a travel boom collides with a jet fuel crunch?
A travel-demand surge into tight kerosene supply spikes jet fuel and jet cracks, squeezing airline margins; long jet cracks (and short fuel-heavy carriers) is the trade, with only a modest pull on flat crude. Rhymes with the summer-2023 jet-crack spike on the post-COVID travel rebound, which pressured airline costs while crude stayed contained. Forward angle: with refiners maximizing diesel yield, jet remains the byproduct in shortest supply, so a demand surge tightens kerosene disproportionately; the roots correctly blend demand and supply but understate the jet-specific channel.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A travel-demand surge collides with tight kerosene supply, spiking jet fuel and rattling airlines. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil demand ▲ · Jet fuel ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.