What if an uprising destabilizes Jordan's monarchy?
An Islamist uprising threatening Jordan's monarchy endangers a key Israeli/Western buffer — risk-off vol bid, only a token oil premium since Jordan is an energy importer, not exporter. Closest analogue: the 2011 Arab Spring, where regime-fragility headlines drove brief risk wobbles but oil moved only where production was at stake (Libya). Transmission is strategic, not commodity: a Jordan collapse raises the Israel-security and refugee-spillover premium, but the market leg is sentiment, fading absent a Gulf supply link.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mass Islamist-led uprising and refugee influx threaten Jordan's monarchy, endangering a key Western and Israeli buffer state. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.