What if large just-transition compensation packages strain fiscal positions in fossil-dependent economies?
Large 'just-transition' compensation packages for displaced fossil regions strain public finances, widening sovereign spreads in carbon-dependent economies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Large 'just-transition' compensation packages for displaced fossil regions strain public finances, widening sovereign spreads in carbon-dependent economies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.58–+1.41% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.5–+0.45% · other way +0.38% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.29–-0.06% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.63–+2.01% · other way -4.35% (n=11) |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.02% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 6 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.08–+0.77% · other way -2.96% (n=11) |
| 7 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.35–+0.23% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -7.97–+4.61% · other way +16.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.92–+1.94% · other way +6.08% (n=9) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–+0.07% · other way +0.7% (n=11) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -6.61–+5.06% · other way +18.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.69–+0.15% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.58–+1.68% · other way +2.85% (n=11) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.14–+0.34% · other way +1.69% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.7% | 70% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -7.4% | 75% | 8 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.5% | 69% | 35 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.5% | 67% | 6 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 36 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d -3bp | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 3 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.2% | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +1.2% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 24 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |