What if Kazakh uranium rerouting through Russia raises supply risk?
Logistics forcing Kazakh uranium to transit Russia exposes Western utilities to sanctions and chokepoint risk, embedding a security premium into uranium prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Logistics forcing Kazakh uranium to transit Russia exposes Western utilities to sanctions and chokepoint risk, embedding a security premium into uranium prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +4.0% hist -0.67–+7.21% · other way -6.78% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.73–-0.98% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.09–-0.64% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.06–-0.23% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.99–-0.28% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.4–+0.31% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.14–-0.11% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.13–+1.53% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.98–+0.76% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.72–-0.31% · other way +12.35% (n=11) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.11–-0.07% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.87–+0.76% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.87–+0.79% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.25–+1.19% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 75% | 30 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.1% | 70% | 37 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 37 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 31 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -6.2% | 64% | 23 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.7% | 61% | 28 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 30 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +1.3% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 31 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -8.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 16 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 30 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.7% | 57% | 27 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 30 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |