What if LFP shift guts cobalt demand and entrenches the surplus?
Accelerating adoption of cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate cells erodes structural cobalt demand, leaving HPAL by-product supply chronically in surplus and prices depressed.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Accelerating adoption of cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate cells erodes structural cobalt demand, leaving HPAL by-product supply chronically in surplus and prices depressed. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.09–+0.19% · other way -10.05% (n=5) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.59–+0.67% · other way -12.08% (n=5) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.04–+0.11% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.84–+0.33% · other way -11.47% (n=5) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.63–+1.0% · other way -9.74% (n=5) |
| 6 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.63–+1.18% · other way +91.02% (n=5) |
| 7 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.39–+0.42% · other way -1.16% (n=12) |
| 8 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.37–+0.52% · other way +48.1% (n=5) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.98–+0.53% · other way -4.41% (n=5) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.09–+0.38% · other way -1.21% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.2% | 73% | 32 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.1% | 69% | 32 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.6% | 64% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.6% | 64% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.6% | 61% | 32 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -0.8% | 61% | 32 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.17 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.2% | 57% | 32 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.8% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 36 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 26 | 0.02 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 49% | 34 | 0.00 | · |