What if renewed civil conflict shuts Libyan oilfields and removes 1 million barrels per day?
Renewed civil conflict shuts Libyan oilfields and the El Sharara/Sarir complex, removing ~1 mb/d of light sweet crude in a repeat of the recurring 2011–2024 outages.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed civil conflict shuts Libyan oilfields and the El Sharara/Sarir complex, removing ~1 mb/d of light sweet crude in a repeat of the recurring 2011–2024 outages. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.0% hist +2.29–+4.51% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.3% hist +0.49–+2.04% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.76–-0.81% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.8% hist -0.84–+1.62% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.42–-0.68% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 6 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.51–+1.61% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.13–-0.04% · other way +1.28% (n=12) |
| 8 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -3.43–+5.17% · other way +6.55% (n=12) |
| 9 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.13–+2.14% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.85–-0.49% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.47–+3.52% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.02–+1.65% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.55–+2.01% · other way +5.53% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.19–+6.62% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 72% | 35 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.0% · 5d +3.1% | 71% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.2% | 71% | 36 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +0.5% | 67% | 20 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.9% | 66% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.0% | 66% | 36 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.3% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 21 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -7.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |