What if China curbs magnesium and metallurgical silicon supply and starves global auto supply chains?
China supply curbs on magnesium and metallurgical silicon (a 2021-style energy-driven cut) starve global auto and aluminium-alloy supply chains, spiking prices, a critical-input concentration scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. China supply curbs on magnesium and metallurgical silicon (a 2021-style energy-driven cut) starve global auto and aluminium-alloy supply chains, spiking prices, a critical-input concentration scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.63–+0.08% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.63–-0.06% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.61–+0.69% · other way +5.6% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.58–+0.12% · other way +2.65% (n=12) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.62–+0.19% · other way -2.9% (n=9) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.54–+0.08% · other way +1.79% (n=12) |
| 7 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.67–+0.37% · other way +-0.0% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.96–+0.24% · other way +4.25% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.98–+1.12% · other way -1.32% (n=10) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.25–+0.98% · other way +6.57% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.58–+0.07% · other way +9.66% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.64–-0.05% · other way -0.6% (n=11) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.58–+0.41% · other way -2.26% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.97–+0.65% · other way +2.26% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 35 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.1% | 66% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.7% | 66% | 36 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 35 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.9% · 5d -5.6% ↺ fades | 68% | 18 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 25 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -0.7% | 61% | 35 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.8% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 34 | 0.17 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 58% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |