What if Matsu internet blackout after both subsea cables cut?
Both cables serving Matsu are severed within weeks, isolating the islands and forcing satellite backup; markets read it as rehearsal for a Taiwan-wide info-blockade, lifting VIX and pressuring TWD.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Both cables serving Matsu are severed within weeks, isolating the islands and forcing satellite backup; markets read it as rehearsal for a Taiwan-wide info-blockade, lifting VIX and pressuring TWD. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.