What if Mideast escalation spikes oil and hits airlines while lifting defense?
A Gulf escalation simultaneously spikes jet fuel (hurting airlines) and drives defense and air-defense orders, a divergent sector outcome within the lane.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Gulf escalation simultaneously spikes jet fuel (hurting airlines) and drives defense and air-defense orders, a divergent sector outcome within the lane. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Jet fuel ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.6% hist +0.74–+6.72% · other way -10.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.71–-0.93% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -0.76–+1.71% · other way -1.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.31–-0.76% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -2.16–+1.82% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.23–-0.41% · other way +0.95% (n=12) |
| 7 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.68–+4.51% · other way +5.49% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.53–+3.9% · other way +16.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.3–+1.8% · other way +5.38% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.97–+0.98% · other way -1.62% (n=10) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.83–-0.39% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 12 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.51–+0.91% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 13 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.55–+3.03% · other way -4.05% (n=12) |
| 14 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.21–+0.89% · other way -0.54% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -1.3% | 69% | 34 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +1.0% | 68% | 32 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.3% · 5d +3.2% | 67% | 25 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +9bp | 63% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.3% | 64% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +9bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.2% | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 30 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.6% | 62% | 30 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 30 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -7.0% | 63% | 12 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |